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Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Inhulets 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Inhulets 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.99 xG and Polessya 1.44 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against Polessya attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inhulets 25% | Draw 29% | Polessya 46%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 50%, Polessya 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inhulets's trading profile (16 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (16 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Inhulets conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights