Inhulets 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Inhulets welcome Polessya to Tsentralnyi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Inhulets — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Inhulets at 0.60 PPG versus Polessya's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Inhulets, 0 for Polessya and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (16 games): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (16 games): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 44% versus Polessya 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 50% | Polessya 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.99 xG and Polessya 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.778 / defence 1.226 | Polessya attack 1.087 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.077. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Inhulets games / 47 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 25% | Draw 29% | Polessya 46%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Polessya 2.17. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 40% | Polessya 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 25% | Draw 29% | Polessya 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Inhulets 0.99 / Polessya 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.778 / def 1.226 | Polessya attack 1.087 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Polessya (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Polessya xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Polessya kick off?
Inhulets vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Polessya?
Inhulets 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Inhulets vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Inhulets vs Polessya part of?
Inhulets vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 25% chance of winning, Polessya a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Inhulets and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Polessya?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Polessya 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Polessya in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Polessya (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.78x the league average against Polessya's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
25%
3.99
29%
3.49
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.43
1.44
Polessya xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.44 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets's recent record stands at 1W 6D 9L from 16 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 4L across 16 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.44 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Polessya in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 1W 6D 9L in their last 16 games (0.56 PPG), while Polessya have gone 6W 6D 4L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
1
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Polessya?
From 2 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Polessya have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 44%, Polessya 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Inhulets) and 44% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Polessya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Inhulets's games and 69% of Polessya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inhulets vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Inhulets's recent games and 44% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Polessya tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Polessya in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Inhulets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Inhulets 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.99 xG and Polessya 1.44 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against Polessya attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 25% | Draw 29% | Polessya 46%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 50%, Polessya 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (16 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (16 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Inhulets conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.