Inhulets 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Lviv travel to Stadion Inhulets to take on Inhulets. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 November 2022, 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets at Stadion Inhulets this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Inhulets) versus 0.80 (Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Inhulets, 0 for Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Inhulets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Lviv in-play and half-time data (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 52% versus Lviv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 52% | Lviv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.10 xG and Lviv 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.810 / defence 0.981 | Lviv attack 0.640 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.218. Data: 29 Inhulets games / 30 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 43% | Draw 32% | Lviv 25%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Lviv 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 40% | Lviv 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Monday 21 Nov 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 43% | Draw 32% | Lviv 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Inhulets 1.10 / Lviv 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.810 / def 0.981 | Lviv attack 0.640 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Lviv xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Lviv kick off?
Inhulets vs Lviv kicked off at 10:00 on Monday 21 November 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Lviv?
Inhulets 1 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Inhulets vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Lviv part of?
Inhulets vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 43% chance of winning, Lviv a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Inhulets and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 1W | Draws 0 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Lviv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Lviv (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.81) and Lviv's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.17
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.86
0.76
Lviv xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.76 for Lviv, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inhulets's recent record stands at 4W 8D 17L from 29 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 16L across 29 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.69 PPG, Lviv on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 3W 2D 8L from 13 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lviv's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Inhulets are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.76 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Lviv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 4W 8D 17L in their last 29 games (0.69 PPG), while Lviv have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Lviv away?
Lviv's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.85 PPG; Lviv away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inhulets and Lviv runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inhulets have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Inhulets
0
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 3, Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2023, when Lviv 0-2 Inhulets.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Lviv?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 46%, Lviv 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Inhulets and 23% for Lviv.
On the defensive side: Lviv in 31%; Inhulets have failed to score in 38% of games; Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Inhulets's recent matches and 31% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Inhulets's recent games and 23% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Lviv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Lviv in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inhulets edge out Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.10 xG and Lviv 0.76 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Lviv attack 0.64 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 43% | Draw 32% | Lviv 25%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 52%, Lviv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Lviv's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.69 PPG, Lviv 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.