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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Inhulets.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kolos Kovalivka beat Inhulets 0-2 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.97 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.98 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Inhulets fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kolos Kovalivka outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 15/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inhulets 32% | Draw 36% | Kolos Kovalivka 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 53%, Kolos Kovalivka 7%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inhulets's trading profile (15 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (15 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.60 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka scored 2 against a 0.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights