Inhulets 0-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Inhulets to face Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Inhulets (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inhulets have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadion Inhulets — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Inhulets, 1.70 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Inhulets 0W, Dnipro-1 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Inhulets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 46% versus Dnipro-1 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 46% | Dnipro-1 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.91 xG and Dnipro-1 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.829 / defence 0.884 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.160 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.270. Data: 39 Inhulets games / 39 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 26% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 46%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.17. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 40% | Dnipro-1 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 26% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Inhulets 0.91 / Dnipro-1 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.829 / def 0.884 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.160 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Dnipro-1 xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Inhulets 0 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 26% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Inhulets and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dnipro-1?
Record (2 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Inhulets and Dnipro-1 in?
Inhulets (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.83) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.16x) against Inhulets's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
26%
3.84
28%
3.53
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.21
1.30
Dnipro-1 xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.30 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Inhulets come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 9D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.26 PPG from 39 outings (28W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Inhulets's home form reads 7W 2D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 2.00 points per game from 19 outings (12W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.08 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 10W 9D 20L in their last 39 games (1.00 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 28W 4D 7L in their last 39 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.21 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Dnipro-1?
From 3 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Inhulets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 42%, Dnipro-1 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Inhulets) and 63% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 47%; Inhulets have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Inhulets's recent matches and 42% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Inhulets's recent games and 63% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Inhulets 0-2 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.91 xG and Dnipro-1 1.30 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Inhulets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.83 / defence 0.88 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 26% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 46%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 46%, Dnipro-1 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.