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Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zorya Luhansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Zorya Luhansk 3-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.18 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.48 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zorya Luhansk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.92 / defence 1.21 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 30% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 44%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, Zorya Luhansk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights