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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne finished level at 2-2 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.31 xG and Veres Rivne 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Veres Rivne attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 40% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 33%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 40%, Veres Rivne 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.60 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights