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Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kryvbas KR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Veres Rivne beat Kryvbas KR 0-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG and Veres Rivne 0.81 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Veres Rivne attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 54% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 18%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Veres Rivne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 46%, Veres Rivne 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Veres Rivne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights