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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava finished level at 2-2 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.94 xG and SK Poltava 0.71 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SK Poltava outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against SK Poltava attack 0.65 / defence 1.46, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 66% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 12%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 70%, SK Poltava 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

SK Poltava's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights