🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat Kryvbas KR 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Kryvbas KR 0-1 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.59 xG and Polessya 1.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.18 / defence 0.83 against Polessya attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 25% | Polessya 24%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Polessya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 35%, Polessya 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.65 PPG, Polessya 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights