🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Oleksandria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Oleksandria 3-0 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.54 xG and Oleksandria 1.33 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oleksandria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Oleksandria attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 42% | Draw 25% | Oleksandria 33%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, Oleksandria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Oleksandria's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.57 PPG, Oleksandria 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights