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Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Obolon'-Brovar 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Obolon'-Brovar 2-1 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.21 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.87 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.16 / defence 0.78 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 26%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 33%, Obolon'-Brovar 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights