Kryvbas KR 3-0 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Minai travel to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 May 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kryvbas KR have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Minai stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Minai have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Kryvbas KR) versus 1.50 (Minai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kryvbas KR, 1 for Minai and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Kryvbas KR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Minai trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 39% versus Minai 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 42% | Minai 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.52 xG and Minai 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.947 / defence 0.833 | Minai attack 0.966 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.193. Minai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Kryvbas KR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Kryvbas KR games / 59 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 26% | Minai 24%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Minai 4.17. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 30% | Minai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 26% | Minai 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.52 / Minai 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.947 / def 0.833 | Minai attack 0.966 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Minai xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Minai kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Minai kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 0 Minai.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Minai part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Minai is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 50% chance of winning, Minai a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Minai?
Record (3 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 1 | Minai 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Minai in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Minai (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 0.95x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.88
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.48
0.96
Minai xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.96 for Minai, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 28W 11D 20L from 59 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 27L across 59 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 16W 5D 8L from 29 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.83 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Current Season
Minai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Minai in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 28W 11D 20L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while Minai have gone 13W 19D 27L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Minai away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.83 PPG; Minai away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Minai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Minai in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Minai runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Minai specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
1
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Minai?
From 4 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Minai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Minai?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 34%, Minai 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Kryvbas KR) and 34% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 28% of games; Minai in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 52% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 34% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Minai tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Minai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Minai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Minai 3-0 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.52 xG and Minai 0.96 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Minai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Minai attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 26% | Minai 24%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 42%, Minai 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Minai's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Minai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.