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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Metalist 1925 Kharkiv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2-0 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.35 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.83 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 49% | Draw 29% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 23%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 25%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Kryvbas KR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights