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Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Livyi Bereh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Livyi Bereh 4-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.33 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.75 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.67 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 29% | Livyi Bereh 21%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 33%, Livyi Bereh 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (30 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (30 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights