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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kudrivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Kudrivka 3-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.69 xG and Kudrivka 0.64 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Kudrivka attack 0.61 / defence 1.35, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 14%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 44%, Kudrivka 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Kudrivka's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Kudrivka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights