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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka finished level at 1-1 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.34 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.14 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.30 / defence 0.94 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 41% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 32%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.60 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights