Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.14) and Karpaty's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.85x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 45/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.85
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.63
0.82
Karpaty xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
2%
41.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.82 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.