Kryvbas KR 1-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and Inhulets meet at Stadion Hirnyk in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's home record at Stadion Hirnyk: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Hirnyk. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inhulets (all games): 0W 2D 1L across 3 Premier League outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inhulets away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.93 in Kryvbas KR's favour (1.60 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kryvbas KR 1W, Inhulets 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kryvbas KR 0% | Inhulets 67%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 33% | Inhulets 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.30 xG and Inhulets 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.028 / defence 0.786 | Inhulets attack 0.755 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.218. Kryvbas KR's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Kryvbas KR games / 3 Inhulets games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 21%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Inhulets 4.76. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kryvbas KR are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kryvbas KR 30% | Inhulets 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.30 / Inhulets 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.028 / def 0.786 | Inhulets attack 0.755 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Inhulets xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 50% chance of winning, Inhulets a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Inhulets?
Record (2 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 1 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Inhulets in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Inhulets's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.76x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.46
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.02
0.72
Inhulets xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.72 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Inhulets in 67%.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Kryvbas KR or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Inhulets in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Inhulets?
From 4 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 1, Inhulets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Inhulets 2-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Kryvbas KR) and 67% (Inhulets) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Kryvbas KR and 33% for Inhulets.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Inhulets in 33%; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 33% of games; Inhulets in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 67% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 33% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Inhulets tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR and Inhulets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR and Inhulets finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.30 xG and Inhulets 0.72 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Inhulets attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 21%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 33%, Inhulets 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Inhulets's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.