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Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 2.03 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.90 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 21% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 57%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights