FC Mariupol 1-2 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Desna at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs Desna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Mariupol and Desna meet at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
FC Mariupol (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Mariupol have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Desna's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Desna have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Desna are 2.00 PPG clear of FC Mariupol in recent Premier League fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 0.90 xG and Desna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Desna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.796 / away 1.057. Data: 1 FC Mariupol games / 1 Desna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Desna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Desna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG FC Mariupol 0.90 / Desna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Desna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.796 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Desna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Desna xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Desna kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Desna kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What was the final score in FC Mariupol vs Desna?
FC Mariupol 1 - 2 Desna.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Desna part of?
FC Mariupol vs Desna is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 31% chance of winning, Desna a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Mariupol and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Desna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Mariupol and Desna in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Desna (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Mariupol's attack rating (0.98) and Desna's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Desna's attack (0.85x) against FC Mariupol's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
31%
3.27
31%
3.18
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
1.93
1.03
Desna xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.03 for Desna, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, FC Mariupol have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Mariupol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Desna's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Desna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Desna are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Mariupol.
Attack vs Defence
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Desna's attacking output running into FC Mariupol's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Desna in 0%.
Defensively: Desna in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Early Season
Desna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Desna in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Desna have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have FC Mariupol or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Mariupol have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Desna in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
1
Draws
1
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Desna?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Desna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Desna 3-3 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Desna?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 0% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Mariupol vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Mariupol's recent games and 100% of Desna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Mariupol and Desna tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Desna in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Desna edge out FC Mariupol 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat FC Mariupol 1-2 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 0.90 xG and Desna 1.03 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Desna outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Desna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 38%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 0%, Desna 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC Mariupol shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Desna managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.