FC Kharkiv 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 3W 2D 0L from 5 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.90 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Kharkiv's 20% rate and LNZ Cherkasy's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 42% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 8% | LNZ Cherkasy 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.929 / defence 0.787 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.155 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.300. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 9 FC Kharkiv games / 39 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 32% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 32% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.10 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.929 / def 0.787 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.155 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.18
LNZ Cherkasy xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 32% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
32%
3.08
31%
3.24
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.28
1.18
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.18 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 6W 5D 1L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 5W 5D 2L from 12 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.92 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 0.92 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy in 25%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 5D 1L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 2.20 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.60 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 20%, LNZ Cherkasy 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for FC Kharkiv and 40% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 40% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out FC Kharkiv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat FC Kharkiv 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 32% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 37%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 8%, LNZ Cherkasy 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.92 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.