FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as FC Kharkiv welcome Chornomorets to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.30 PPG, Chornomorets 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Kharkiv, 2 for Chornomorets and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Chornomorets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 33% | Chornomorets 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 67% | Chornomorets 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.34 xG and Chornomorets 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.919 / defence 0.803 | Chornomorets attack 0.734 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 FC Kharkiv games / 3 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 52% | Draw 31% | Chornomorets 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Chornomorets 5.88. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Chornomorets 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 52% | Draw 31% | Chornomorets 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.34 / Chornomorets 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.919 / def 0.803 | Chornomorets attack 0.734 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Chornomorets xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 52% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
Record (6 meetings): FC Kharkiv 2W | Draws 2 | Chornomorets 2W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.92) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
52%
1.92
31%
3.24
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.99
0.65
Chornomorets xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
4%
22.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.65 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.00 PPG, Chornomorets on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have FC Kharkiv or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Kharkiv 33% BTTS, Chornomorets 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Kharkiv) and 33% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chornomorets in 33%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 33% of games; Chornomorets in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 33% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 33% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.