🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.30 xG and Zorya Luhansk 2.21 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.12 / defence 1.56 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% | Draw 20% | Zorya Luhansk 58%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%, Zorya Luhansk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights