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Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-1 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.87 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.44 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.26 / defence 0.86, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 49%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 100%, Shakhtar Donetsk 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shakhtar Donetsk win broke the near-deadlock. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shakhtar Donetsk conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights