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Shock result as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defy the odds to beat Polessya 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Polessya 3-2 at Arena Livyi Bereg, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.74 xG and Polessya 1.46 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Polessya attack 1.27 / defence 0.64, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 18% | Draw 30% | Polessya 53%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54%, Polessya 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Polessya's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights