Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Kudrivka to Tonkocheyev Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Tonkocheyev Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tonkocheyev Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) versus 0.90 (Kudrivka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for Kudrivka and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% versus Kudrivka 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51% | Kudrivka 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.27 xG and Kudrivka 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.737 / defence 0.938 | Kudrivka attack 0.878 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.141. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 39 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% | Draw 34% | Kudrivka 25%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Kudrivka 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | Kudrivka 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% | Draw 34% | Kudrivka 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.27 / Kudrivka 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.737 / def 0.938 | Kudrivka attack 0.878 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Kudrivka xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 41% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Record (3 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (0.74) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
41%
2.42
34%
2.97
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.21
0.94
Kudrivka xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.94 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 11D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.90 PPG from 39 outings (8W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.05 PPG, Kudrivka on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.42 points per game from 19 outings (1W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.13 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 8W 11D 20L in their last 39 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Kudrivka away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.11 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
From 3 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 37%, Kudrivka 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 42% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 42% of games; Kudrivka in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 53% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 42% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.