Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karpaty at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Karpaty travel to Tonkocheyev Stadium to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Tonkocheyev Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tonkocheyev Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karpaty — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Karpaty have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Karpaty have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.50 PPG, Karpaty 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, Karpaty 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Karpaty trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% versus Karpaty 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Karpaty 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.09 xG and Karpaty 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.973 / defence 0.881 | Karpaty attack 1.234 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.082. Karpaty have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 34 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 31% | Draw 33% | Karpaty 36%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Karpaty 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karpaty as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | Karpaty 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 31% | Draw 33% | Karpaty 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.09 / Karpaty 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.973 / def 0.881 | Karpaty attack 1.234 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Karpaty xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 31% chance of winning, Karpaty a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty?
Record (2 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W | Draws 1 | Karpaty 0W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Karpaty (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
31%
3.18
33%
3.07
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.26
1.18
Karpaty xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.18 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karpaty, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 9L across 34 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Karpaty, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.15 PPG, Karpaty on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karpaty's away record stands at 7W 6D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.53 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Karpaty in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
Karpaty
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 13W 12D 9L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.18 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Karpaty in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
Draws
0
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, Karpaty have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41%, Karpaty 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 41% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Karpaty in 47%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 35% of games; Karpaty in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 35% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 41% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.