Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi take on Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Kryvbas KR at Tonkocheyev Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 3W 5D 2L at Tonkocheyev Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tonkocheyev Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 1.00 PPG versus Kryvbas KR's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Kryvbas KR 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Kryvbas KR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% versus Kryvbas KR 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Kryvbas KR 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.735 / defence 0.950 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.957 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.092. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 36 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29% | Draw 37% | Kryvbas KR 34%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Kryvbas KR 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | Kryvbas KR 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29% | Draw 37% | Kryvbas KR 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 / Kryvbas KR 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.735 / def 0.950 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.957 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kryvbas KR xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 29% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR?
Record (2 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 2W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 0.73x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
37%
2.69
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
1.91
0.99
Kryvbas KR xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.99 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 10D 16L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (14W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.11 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 5W 6D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.67 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR in 61%.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 14W 11D 11L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.17 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
2
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Kryvbas KR 2-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33%, Kryvbas KR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 56% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 44% of games; Kryvbas KR in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 56% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 56% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.