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Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-5.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-5 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.01 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.64 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.64 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 52%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33%, Kryvbas KR 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights