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Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo Kyiv beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-4 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.62 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.68 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.46 / defence 0.79, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 13% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 63%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33%, Dynamo Kyiv 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights