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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SK Poltava defy the odds to beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Poltava beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-2 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 2.75 xG and SK Poltava 0.85 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SK Poltava outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.37 / defence 0.85 against SK Poltava attack 0.77 / defence 1.79, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 77% | Draw 14% | SK Poltava 9%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a SK Poltava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 69%, SK Poltava 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.

SK Poltava's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.46. Form was overturned, with SK Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights