Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.42x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.16
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.41
0.98
Oleksandria xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.98 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.