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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dynamo Kyiv and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 8, as Dynamo Kyiv and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.73 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.35 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.43 / defence 0.99 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 46% | Draw 23% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 30%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 60%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 10%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dynamo Kyiv 1.80 PPG, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights