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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Kudrivka 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo Kyiv beat Kudrivka 3-2 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.70 xG and Kudrivka 0.68 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kudrivka outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.27 / defence 0.87 against Kudrivka attack 0.63 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 61% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 14%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 64%, Kudrivka 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Kudrivka's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kudrivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights