🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kryvbas KR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo Kyiv beat Kryvbas KR 4-0 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.85 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.48 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.20 / defence 1.23, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 46% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 30%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 54%, Kryvbas KR 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights