Dnipro-1 3-2 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Avanhard this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dnipro-1 are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Ruh Lviv 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 45% versus Ruh Lviv 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 66% | Ruh Lviv 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.98 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.405 / defence 0.974 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.718 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.238. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Dnipro-1 games / 38 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 63% | Draw 21% | Ruh Lviv 16%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Ruh Lviv 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 50% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 63% | Draw 21% | Ruh Lviv 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Dnipro-1 1.98 / Ruh Lviv 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.405 / def 0.974 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.718 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Dnipro-1 3 - 2 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 63% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Dnipro-1 2W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.41x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.76
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.84
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
45.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.86 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 27W 4D 7L from 38 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 17L across 38 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 15W 1D 2L from 18 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 27W 4D 7L in their last 38 games (2.24 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 13D 17L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.56 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dnipro-1's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Dnipro-1 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 44%, Ruh Lviv 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dnipro-1) and 33% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 39% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Ruh Lviv 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Ruh Lviv 3-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.98 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruh Lviv outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.41 / defence 0.97 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 63% | Draw 21% | Ruh Lviv 16%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 66%, Ruh Lviv 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.