Dnipro-1 1-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oleksandria make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Thursday 11 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Dnipro-1 (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 at Stadion Avanhard this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Oleksandria have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 0.90 PPG lead over Oleksandria (2.20 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dnipro-1, 0 for Oleksandria and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 45% versus Oleksandria 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 67% | Oleksandria 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.91 xG and Oleksandria 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.653 / defence 1.014 | Oleksandria attack 0.778 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.134. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.653 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Dnipro-1 games / 42 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 61% | Draw 22% | Oleksandria 17%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Oleksandria 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 50% | Oleksandria 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Thursday 11 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 61% | Draw 22% | Oleksandria 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Dnipro-1 1.91 / Oleksandria 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.653 / def 1.014 | Oleksandria attack 0.778 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Oleksandria xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 11 May 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Dnipro-1 1 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 61% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
Record (2 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (1.65) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.78x) against Dnipro-1's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.60
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.81
0.90
Oleksandria xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
3%
39.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.90 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 31W 4D 7L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 16W 16D 10L from 42 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.60 PPG from 20 outings (17W 1D 2L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 5W 10D 5L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.31 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 31W 4D 7L in their last 42 games (2.31 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 16W 16D 10L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Oleksandria away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.60 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
1
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Oleksandria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 45%, Oleksandria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Dnipro-1) and 45% (Oleksandria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Oleksandria in 35%; Oleksandria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 60% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Dnipro-1's matches and 45% of Oleksandria's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 1, as Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.91 xG and Oleksandria 0.90 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.65 / defence 1.01 against Oleksandria attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 61% | Draw 22% | Oleksandria 17%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 67%, Oleksandria 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.