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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv beat Chornomorets 1-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.97 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.95 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 34%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, Ruh Lviv 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chornomorets's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights