Chornomorets 1-2 Polessya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Polessya at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Polessya at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 August 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Polessya haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Polessya have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Chornomorets, 2 for Polessya and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2025, ended 1–3 with Polessya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Polessya 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Polessya attack 1.106 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.265. Data: 0 Chornomorets games / 30 Polessya games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 22% | Draw 25% | Polessya 53%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Polessya 1.89. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 22% | Draw 25% | Polessya 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Chornomorets 0.95 / Polessya 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Polessya attack 1.106 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Polessya (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Polessya xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Polessya kick off?
Chornomorets vs Polessya kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Chornomorets 1 - 2 Polessya.
Where is Chornomorets vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Polessya part of?
Chornomorets vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 22% chance of winning, Polessya a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chornomorets and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Polessya?
Record (4 meetings): Chornomorets 2W | Draws 0 | Polessya 2W.
What form are Chornomorets and Polessya in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
22%
4.48
25%
4.01
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.56
1.61
Polessya xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
4%
22.39
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.61 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Pre-Season
Polessya
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Polessya runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Chornomorets won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
0
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Polessya?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Chornomorets 1-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Chornomorets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Chornomorets 1-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Polessya 1.61 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Polessya attack 1.11 / defence 0.86, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 22% | Draw 25% | Polessya 53%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.