Chornomorets 1-4 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Polessya at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Chornomorets, Chornomorets have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Polessya have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Polessya — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Chornomorets's 30% rate and Polessya's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Chornomorets, 0 for Polessya and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 4–1 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Polessya trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 39% versus Polessya 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 46% | Polessya 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Polessya 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.854 / defence 0.940 | Polessya attack 1.023 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.188. Data: 34 Chornomorets games / 33 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 30% | Polessya 40%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Polessya 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Polessya 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 30% | Polessya 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Chornomorets 0.95 / Polessya 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.854 / def 0.940 | Polessya attack 1.023 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Polessya (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Polessya xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Polessya kick off?
Chornomorets vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Chornomorets 1 - 4 Polessya.
Where is Chornomorets vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Polessya part of?
Chornomorets vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 30% chance of winning, Polessya a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chornomorets and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Polessya?
Record (2 meetings): Chornomorets 2W | Draws 0 | Polessya 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Polessya in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Polessya (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.35
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Polessya xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.14 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 10W 2D 21L from 33 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 8L across 33 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 7W 1D 8L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Chornomorets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Polessya's away record stands at 8W 4D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.36 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Polessya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Polessya in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 10W 2D 21L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Polessya have gone 16W 9D 8L in their last 33 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.38 PPG; Polessya away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Polessya in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Polessya runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Chornomorets won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
0
Draws
2
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Polessya?
From 4 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Polessya have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2025, when Polessya 3-1 Chornomorets.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chornomorets 38% BTTS, Polessya 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 44% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Polessya in 50%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 31% of games; Polessya in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 31% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 44% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Polessya tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Polessya in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Polessya run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Chornomorets 1-4 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Polessya 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Polessya outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Polessya attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 30% | Draw 30% | Polessya 40%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, Polessya 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Polessya's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.