Chornomorets 1-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inhulets make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Inhulets have collected 0.60 PPG across 5 Premier League outings this season: 0W 3D 2L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Inhulets have posted 0W 3D 2L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Chornomorets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 20% versus Inhulets 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 20% | Inhulets 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.39 xG and Inhulets 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.876 / defence 1.175 | Inhulets attack 0.712 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.228. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Chornomorets games / 5 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 45% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 28%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Inhulets 3.57. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 40% | Inhulets 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 45% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Chornomorets 1.39 / Inhulets 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.876 / def 1.175 | Inhulets attack 0.712 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Inhulets xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Inhulets kick off?
Chornomorets vs Inhulets kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Chornomorets 1 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Chornomorets vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Inhulets part of?
Chornomorets vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 45% chance of winning, Inhulets a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chornomorets and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 2 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Inhulets in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.88x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.71x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.71
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.42
1.03
Inhulets xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.03 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 0D 4L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Chornomorets against 0.60 for Inhulets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chornomorets's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Chornomorets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Inhulets in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Inhulets away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
2
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Inhulets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Inhulets 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 33%, Inhulets 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Chornomorets and 33% for Inhulets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games; Inhulets in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 67% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chornomorets's recent games and 33% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Inhulets tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out Inhulets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Inhulets 1-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.39 xG and Inhulets 1.03 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Inhulets attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 45% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 28%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 20%, Inhulets 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not.
Inhulets's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.60 PPG, Inhulets 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.