Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Chornomorets Stadium to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 1W 2D 5L from 8 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.62 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 1W 2D 2L at Chornomorets Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chornomorets 0.62 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chornomorets register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 38% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.23 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.744 / defence 1.074 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.065 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.092. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Chornomorets games / 38 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 32% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 34%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chornomorets Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 32% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Chornomorets 1.23 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.744 / def 1.074 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.065 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Chornomorets Stadium.
Where is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Chornomorets Stadium.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 33% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.74x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.10
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.48
1.25
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.25 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.62 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.62 PPG overall — Chornomorets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 25%.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.25 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Chornomorets and 100% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Chornomorets's matches and 100% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's.
Do Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.