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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 29, as Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.64 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.88 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.78 / defence 1.28 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.46 / defence 0.70, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 12% | Draw 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 67%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 48%, Dynamo Kyiv 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chornomorets's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights