Chornomorets 1-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Chornomorets — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Chornomorets this season.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Chornomorets, 1.90 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Dnipro-1 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
It is worth noting that Dnipro-1 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dnipro-1 half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 58% versus Dnipro-1 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 58% | Dnipro-1 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.04 xG and Dnipro-1 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.006 / defence 0.939 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.260 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.198. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Chornomorets games / 41 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 46%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Dnipro-1 2.17. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Dnipro-1 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Chornomorets 1.04 / Dnipro-1 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.006 / def 0.939 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.260 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Dnipro-1 xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Chornomorets 1 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 28% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 3W.
What form are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.26x) against Chornomorets's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
28%
3.60
27%
3.75
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.46
1.42
Dnipro-1 xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.42 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 9W 13D 19L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1's form line: 30W 4D 7L from 41 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 3D 5L from 21 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.15 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 30W 4D 7L in their last 41 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.90 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dnipro-1 go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
0
Draws
6
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 48%, Dnipro-1 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chornomorets) and 62% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 48%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 43% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chornomorets's recent games and 62% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Chornomorets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 1-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.04 xG and Dnipro-1 1.42 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.26 / defence 0.83, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 28% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 46%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 58%, Dnipro-1 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.