Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stadion Chornomorets — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dnipro-1's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Chornomorets, 1.10 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Dnipro-1 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 2–5 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dnipro-1 have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dnipro-1 half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 49% versus Dnipro-1 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 52% | Dnipro-1 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Dnipro-1 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.059 / defence 1.184 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.897 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.193. Data: 59 Chornomorets games / 59 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 40%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 50% | Dnipro-1 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Chornomorets 1.12 / Dnipro-1 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.059 / def 1.184 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.897 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dnipro-1 xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Chornomorets 0 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 33% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
Record (5 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 5W.
What form are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.90x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
33%
3.08
28%
3.61
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.38
1.27
Dnipro-1 xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.27 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 19W 10D 30L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Dnipro-1's form line: 34W 14D 11L from 59 games, 1.97 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (9W 5D 15L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 17W 7D 5L from 29 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.68 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Current Season
Dnipro-1
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 19W 10D 30L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 34W 14D 11L in their last 59 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.10 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dnipro-1 go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
0
Draws
6
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 41%, Dnipro-1 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Chornomorets) and 45% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 41%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 48% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Chornomorets's recent games and 45% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 0-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Dnipro-1 1.27 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 33% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 40%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 52%, Dnipro-1 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.