Bukovyna 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Bukovyna take on Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Kryvbas KR travel to Bukovyna Stadium to take on Bukovyna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bukovyna stand at 1W 5D 3L from 9 Premier League matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bukovyna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bukovyna have posted 1W 4D 0L at Bukovyna Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bukovyna Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.89 — Bukovyna are significantly better at Bukovyna Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.89 PPG (Bukovyna) versus 0.90 (Kryvbas KR). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Bukovyna in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bukovyna 33% versus Kryvbas KR 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bukovyna 44% | Kryvbas KR 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bukovyna 1.15 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bukovyna attack 0.950 / defence 0.964 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.961 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.123. Data: 9 Bukovyna games / 37 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bukovyna 35% | Draw 36% | Kryvbas KR 29%. Fair-value odds: Bukovyna 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Kryvbas KR 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Bukovyna 40% | Kryvbas KR 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bukovyna Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bukovyna 35% | Draw 36% | Kryvbas KR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Bukovyna 1.15 / Kryvbas KR 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bukovyna attack 0.950 / def 0.964 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.961 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bukovyna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kryvbas KR xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Bukovyna Stadium.
What was the final score in Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR?
Bukovyna 0 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Bukovyna Stadium.
What competition is Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Bukovyna a 35% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR in?
Bukovyna (all comps): 1W-5D-3L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bukovyna's attack at 0.95x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Bukovyna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
36%
2.76
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bukovyna xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
Kryvbas KR xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bukovyna and 1.04 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bukovyna come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 5D 3L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Bukovyna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bukovyna on 0.89 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bukovyna's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Bukovyna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bukovyna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bukovyna are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR in 67%.
Defensively: Bukovyna have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bukovyna
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Bukovyna have gone 1W 5D 3L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bukovyna at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Bukovyna's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bukovyna at home: 1.50 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bukovyna or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bukovyna have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Bukovyna
1
Draws
0
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR?
From 1 meetings on record, Bukovyna have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Bukovyna 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bukovyna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bukovyna 50%, Kryvbas KR 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bukovyna) and 25% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Bukovyna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bukovyna home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bukovyna play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bukovyna's recent matches and 50% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bukovyna vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bukovyna's recent games and 25% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Bukovyna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bukovyna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bukovyna Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Bukovyna and Kryvbas KR drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bukovyna 1.15 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bukovyna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bukovyna attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 9/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bukovyna 35% | Draw 36% | Kryvbas KR 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bukovyna 44%, Kryvbas KR 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bukovyna's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bukovyna 0.89 PPG, Kryvbas KR 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bukovyna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.