İstanbulspor 1-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sivasspor at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this İstanbulspor vs Sivasspor encounter.

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Analysis

Sivasspor make the trip to Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu to face İstanbulspor in Süper Lig (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

İstanbulspor (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

İstanbulspor at home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sivasspor's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Sivasspor arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from İstanbulspor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) — İstanbulspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sivasspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for İstanbulspor, 1 for Sivasspor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended İstanbulspor 0–1 Sivasspor — a Sivasspor win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Sivasspor — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 47% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 56% | Sivasspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.09 xG and Sivasspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.592 / defence 1.404 | Sivasspor attack 0.856 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.243. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.592 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. İstanbulspor's defence rating of 1.404 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sivasspor's projected output up. Data: built from İstanbulspor's last 72 games and Sivasspor's last 72.

Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 26% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 45%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 3.86 | Draw 3.39 | Sivasspor 2.24. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: İstanbulspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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