İstanbulspor 1-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu plays host to İstanbulspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
İstanbulspor (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
İstanbulspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kasımpaşa are 0.60 PPG clear of İstanbulspor over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from İstanbulspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of İstanbulspor's games and 80% of Kasımpaşa's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Kasımpaşa edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended İstanbulspor 1–3 Kasımpaşa — a Kasımpaşa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 50% versus Kasımpaşa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 53% | Kasımpaşa 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.21 xG and Kasımpaşa 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.723 / defence 1.380 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.290 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.169. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.290, which lifts their away xG to 2.08. İstanbulspor's defence rating of 1.380 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kasımpaşa's projected output up. Data: built from İstanbulspor's last 64 games and Kasımpaşa's last 64.
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 20% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 56%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 5.02 | Draw 4.10 | Kasımpaşa 1.80. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.21 / 2.08) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (İstanbulspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: İstanbulspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 20% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG İstanbulspor 1.21 / Kasımpaşa 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.723 / def 1.380 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.290 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Kasımpaşa xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
İstanbulspor 1 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 20% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from İstanbulspor's attack rating (0.72) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.29x) against İstanbulspor's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from İstanbulspor's last 64 games and Kasımpaşa's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
20%
5.02
24%
4.10
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
3.29
2.08
Kasımpaşa xG
5.02
20%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
12%
8.01
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
2%
40.20
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 2.08 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 15W 12D 37L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 23W 14D 27L from 64 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Kasımpaşa are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, İstanbulspor have posted 0.94 PPG from their last 32 home games (8W 6D 18L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 7D 15L from their last 32 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.45 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 61%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
İstanbulspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
İstanbulspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 15W 12D 37L in their last 64 games (0.89 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.94 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Kasımpaşa have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, İstanbulspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, İstanbulspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 March 2024: İstanbulspor 1-2 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 53%, Kasımpaşa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (İstanbulspor) and 62% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 34% of games; Kasımpaşa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 53% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of İstanbulspor's matches and 62% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 55% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out İstanbulspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat İstanbulspor 1-2 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.21 xG and Kasımpaşa 2.08 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.38 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.29 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 20% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 56%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 53%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.