🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 31 as Çorum FK welcome Trabzonspor to Corum Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Trabzonspor's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.23 xG and Trabzonspor 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Trabzonspor attack 1.161 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 0 Çorum FK games / 34 Trabzonspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Çorum FK 29% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights